Waiting for the Second Coming of India

Talking to the National Press Club in US, late Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau observed "Living next to you is like sleeping with an elephant; no matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, one is affected by every twitch and grunt."

        The man who'd been a pain in the rear to the US with his leanings towards Russia and Cuba should know a thing or two about being a neighbour to the real beast.

Like Canada, we Sri Lankans are geographically thrown in the backyard of our one and only neighbour. But, unlike Canada, we have to be careful not to be a pain in the rear and disturb the sleeping giant.

Thank god, India may be a beast, not a bully.  

History, along with myths, talks about the link between both. Sri Lankans often raise (and bury!) the historic link with India as they see fit. Sinhalese may beam about the birthplace of Buddha or their ancestors when the relationship is warm, but with the slightest signal of leaning towards Tamils, become ready to fight the invaders till death.

         Tamils, mainly the vocal minority, upon cue from LTTE, would talk about the motherly love of India, but with any suggestion of marginalizing tigers, would thunder about defeating the fourth largest army in the world.

 Sri Lanka is not a Banana Republic

In a recent outburst directed at the former Indian high commissioner, Anura Bandaranayake, a man known to be suffering from chronic foot-in-the-mouth disease, practically told India to mind its own business. (Now, the former heir apparent seemed to be told by the incumbent to MYOB and having found no one to back him up in chorus, he is never to be heard again.)

Well, Anyone who wants to remind that Sri Lanka is not a banana republic where presidents are called in to the US embassy for 'consultations', should wake up to the reality that it is the presidents, opposition leaders and political leaders of all stripes, including Anura in his briet stint as a foreign minister, who make the obligatory pilgrimage to India, upon assuming office, to ensure the blessings, not of holy men, but of the high priests of South Block. At times, the intention is to sabotage the political mileage gained by their opponents. Thrusting themselves in this mess, even the Vikings were bitten by the bug of following this tradition, aka courtesy calls, before and after every talks.

        It's not long ago that JVP and UNP wanted India out of Sri Lankan soil and LTTE bragged about defeating the fourth largest army.

Oh my! How things have changed. Now, both sides want India to help them defeat the other. LTTE wants India to stop military assistance to Sri Lanka and recognize its self-proclaimed sole representative status.

The government and JVP were ready to engage India, believing India will do the dirty work for them, thus pushing for the defence pact.

Otherwise, what external threat does Sri Lanka fear to push for the pact? Maldives?

        Nobody is enthusiastic about military intervention except chauvinist comrades and venerables in Sri Lanka and Tiger apologists in Tamil Nadu. Reds and saffrons, who fear a UN intervention will divide the nation along the ethnic lines as in Cyprus, wouldn't mind India 'neutering the cat' and, of course, get out right after that, without insisting on a political solution.

        Blackshawl brigade in Tamilnadu wants India to 'declaw the lion' and crown the tiger as the King of the Jungle and, of course, get out right after that without dictating any changes in Law of the Jungle.

        But the Gentle Giant seems to be sleeping. But for some, as the cliche goes, silence is deafening.

Make no mistake about it.  It is just pretending by refusing to engage openly. But the engagement is not as much as some want it to be.

India may have reasons behind its reluctance. Having disturbed the hive and stung by the bees, the elephant doesn't want to bother again. Then there are those southern sentiments towards their brethren in Ealam have to be addressed and the pragmatic reasons for the minority governement that is kept alive with the support of regional special interest groups. Above all, with the new SL government aligning itself with Sinhalese extremist elements, India doesn't want to be found guilty by association.  

        In one hand, making India to think twice is, for LTTE, a victory in itself. And on the other, being held hostage and blackmailed by regional parties is a shame for the government of a regional superpower.

        But this reluctance paved way for a new player in the field and the giant is disturbed now. Growing Pakistani influence in military affairs has India thinking loud.

 Taking responsibility

India cannot blame Sri Lanka or LTTE alone for the debacle. Having flexed the muscles for a long time, it entered the arena without assessing the pitfalls and feasibility. Military might of the regional superpower alone is not enough to find a solution for a conflict that passed its original cause long time ago.

Initial blessings to the rebel groups may have more to do with west getting a foothold in west-leaning JR's regime than the suffering in 83 riots and aspirations of Tamils. Ethnic riots may have elicited sympathy, but it is the VOA and Trincomalee that are the real reasons behind arming anybody who wanted to setup shop in Tamilnadu. If India was there for altruistic reasons, it should have pushed for joint front like PLO.

As Americans learnt their lessons in backing Mujahideen to fight Russians, India paid a big price by arming them.  

Despite repeated Sri Lankan accusations of arming rebels, India tried to gain political leverage using rebels. By twisting JR's arms, it pushed the Indo-Lanka accord against the wishes of everyone involved. Apart from JVP and chauvinists, even the JR government's Premadasa and Lalith Athulathmuthali were against the accord. LTTE Supremo was holed up in Delhi against his will and swore revenge on Rajiv.

Realizing that it is no more considered the sole representative, LTTE tried to torpedo the accord by declaring war on IPKF, blaming India for the suicide deaths of their commanders despite the fact that it is the JR regime that insisted on flying them to Colombo. Dealing with untrustworthy partners, who viewed India's entry as to promote its own interests, and playing well into the hands of JR and LTTE, Referee India finally donned the gloves and entered the ring to fight the LTTE. On-the-job-training prime minister was outfoxed by JR.Jeyawardena as JR reportedly boasted later.

Regime change in Sri Lanka turned the tables. Touted ad nauseam as a diplomatic move by LTTE, the warring parties have become strange bedfellows and declared, to quote Trudeau again partially, India 'has no place in their bedroom.'

The country that was trying to force a shotgun wedding was hit on the head with the butt of a gun.

Apart from the paradigm shift in Sri Lankan politics, changing political landscape in India itself worsened the matters. Emergence of regional parties eroded the majority rule and paved way for the minority governements that lack mandate and muscle. Due to the political meddling, IPKF had to fight the war with one hand tied behind.

 With the ultimate insult of fighting LTTE that is fully armed by the Sri Lankan governent, India bowed out bloodied and humiliated.  It is the price India paid for not having a dignified exit strategy and a time frame.

In this war, India forgot the very reason it got into this mess in the first place.

A Political solution for Sri Lankan Tamils.

Blinded by the military might, India failed to win the hearts and minds of Tamils.

LTTE provoked IPKF in a typical guerilla fashion to do atrocities on Tamils. LTTE played its cards very well in portraying India as a bully trying to impose its will on Tamils and destroy the dream of Tamil homeland. India was outgunned in propaganda war with LTTE as well.

        Tamils, with inflated expectations, had their dreams shattered about India repeating another Bangaladesh in Ealam.  Fighting Colombo's war, India alienated Tamils who felt betrayed when Indian army turned it rage on the innocent civilians.

But, India could have tried to heal the wounds. Even after the departure, India never gave any formal apology, nor ever regretted the 'excesses' of the army. ('Tragedy or aberration', some may prefer calling)

Then came the Rajiv's killing and that destroyed whatever left and made everything irreversible and irreparable.

 Southern Sentiments

Then, in another front, India seemed to be worried about the southern sentiments. With the tiger sympathizers in the centre coaltion, centre has to listen and act accordingly. India's recent refusal to sign Defence Pact was widely credited to those tiger sympathizers in Tiger media.

With their rhetoric about transforming Tamilnadu into another Punjab is dead along with separatism in Punjab, fire breathing panthers and other 'mewtant' felines are now threatening that 'Tamilnadu will erupt'.

These Firebrands only want to drum up support for the LTTE by exploiting the suffering of Tamil refugees. Not to be outdone, main parties are not left with any choice, but to stage a show of sympathy. The whole drama makes it look like Tamilnadu is about to explode.

 Sinhalese extremists

Above all, India hesitates to deal with a regime with extremist tendencies. With its militaristic approach to ethnic question, Rajapakse's government tried to get India on board for tiger hunting. As soon as the governent took over, Sri Lanka went to India with all the enthusiasm, carrying a shopping list for military hardware. But it was politely informed to come up with a political solution and look elsewhere for arms. Believing that 'Tiger terrorist problem' can be conatined by military means, Sri Lanka looked elsewhere, which happened to be the regional rivals, China and Pakistan.

These intertwined factors make India look before it leaps.

Is that fear justified?

In the question of southern sentiments, despite all the rhetoric of firebrands, sympathy for Sri Lankan Tamil people in Tamilnadu is dried up thanks to the killings of LTTE. Now it has become more of a nuisance. Not to be left out, from time to time, both main parties in Tamil Nadu call for Indian intervention while carefully distancing themselves from LTTE. Main parties are not ready to risk thier political future by aligning with tigers.

The leaders with mixed loyalties, who enjoy tiger sponsored world tours and reported finanancial backings, are just showing obedience to their masters offshore. These leaders, for all their rhetoric, can't even mobilise enough people for a Pro-Tiger conference, let alone for a protest to make the state standstill. If it is not for the shameless last minute dealmaking with either of those poltical parties, they will bite the dust in elections.

With its 'People's decision is Almighty's decision' changing to 'Centre's decision is Almighty's decision', DMK is distancing itself from LTTE, which one time had a free ride during DMK regime and killed its opponents in indian soil. Karunanithi toeing the centre's line, with jayalitha being vocal anti-LTTE as ever, India can simply ignore the firebrands.

Pakistani involvement

  On the question of Pakistani involvement, India could have handled differently.

Looking for an opportunity to get a back door access to India, Pakistan gladly offered to help when India refused. With sales, come the after-sales guarantees, warrantees, in-house technical support etc. Of course, India was right when refusing to give lethal arms that could be used against Tamils. It does't want to be a part of it. But, refusing to sell lethal weapons didn't stop Tamils from dying of Sri Lankan firepower.

In the military front, India could have played its cards well. India could have signed the military pact like US and sent a message to LTTE that 'sheriff is in town'. Like all those superpowers acquiring nuclear power for 'Peace', India could have provided military assistance for 'peaceful purposes' with attaching some strings.

One has to remeber that after the peace talks, most of the killings could be attributed to LTTE's provocation, be it 'claymore attacks by Tamil resurgence force' or mortar attacks on camps. The latest surge in violence itself was triggered by LTTE's closure of a sluice gate in Maavilaru.   In LTTE's web media, anyone can find pictures of its much lauded citizen force training exercises similar to the tragic 'First aid training'. LTTE's tactics of attacking from populated areas, using humanshields and exploiting the resulting civilian deaths for propaganda shouldn't be new to India.

A military pact could have been a deterrent to LTTE attacks and its grand military ambitions, like retaking Jaffna. And it would give the right to question any military killing without LTTE provocation and, above all, the need for military soltution. It could have thwarted any attempt by Pakistan to get a toehold to use Sri Lanka as a springboard. But now, by having them look anywhere else, India doesn't have the same clout it would have had to influence or pressure Sri Lankan governent.  By not offering the carrot, India is unable to use the stick.

 LTTE exploiting Pakistani involvement

Growing Pakistani influence might not help creating a new province of Sri Lankistan, or a territory of Sri Lankadesh. But it might change the Sri Lankan political landscape forever. With the newfound air superiority, thanks to the unlikely combination of Kfirs and Khans, Sri Lanka is pushing militarily to defeat LTTE. Emboldened by the recent military gains, despite some stunning reversals, Colombo may try to dictate tems for the solution and impose it on Tamils.

        As usual, LTTE is trying to exploit the Pakistani involvement.

        Political pundits in LTTE media, with their sudden-found sympathy for India, are worried about the Chinese and Pakistan involvement in Sri Lanka. LTTE media is littered with analyses on how these involvements will affect India's domination in the region. Recent assassination attempt in Colombo on a Pakistani diplomat and Chinese involvement in oil exploration were highlighted by these doomsayers. Fortunately, these pundits haven't yet come up with the threat of china's territorial claims on China Bay where Indian oil storage is located.  

        In its wildest dreams, LTTE is drooling at the prospect of India being left with no choice but to deal with them in their own terms. You can't blame them. Having seen Afghanistan, Sind and Baloch, LTTE believes it can exploit regional rivalry. On a different note, according to those close with the leadership, LTTE believes that India eventually has to deal with them in the same way it deals with Musharaff who overthrew the elected government.

 Right on track

Despite its reluctance to engage openly, in addtion to its refusal to share the chairmanship with co-chairs for obvious reasons, India was right in every aspect. When it comes to the commitment to Sri Lanka's territorial integrity, offering defence against the much hyped air threat, tipping SL navy about arms smuggling, stance on North-East merger, offering to send food to Jaffna and, above all, on diffrentiating LTTE and Tamils, India is sticking to its guns.

        Though, from time to time, LTTE stalwarts bragged about the channels it keeps with India, India refuses to accept LTTE's sole representative claim. By not facilitating the audition to TNA and repudiating the political advisor's suggestion of forgetting the past, India effectively denied the bragging rights to the LTTE propagandists of India accepting its claims of sole representaion.

To save its face, LTTE went as far as to claim, through its notorious website, that Guru Ravi Shankar was carrying a message from RAW chief.

Then, TNA washed its hands on Vaiko and surrendered to Karunanidhi. When TNA met with TamilNadu Chief Minister and Prime Minister, the euphoria is somehow muted. For Karunanidhi, it has more to do with clipping Vaiko's wings (or tail, for that matter) than helping Sri Lankan Tamils.

 India shouldn't forget tamils

Despite LTTE's pathetic overtures, India should not forget the plight of tamils. Tamils always look up India as a mother protecting its children. Tamils may be angry at India for the betrayal of turning its rage on them. But they never condone such a horrendous crime of killing of Rajiv Gandhi. It was the LTTE and its bunch of minions that celebrated in this heinous crime and ordinary tamils, the silenced majority, want no part of it.

        Bear in mind that, despite repeated LTTE's calls to come to their territory, tamils in Trincomalee, cross the tiger heartland of Wanni to go to India, risking their lives on the way. If they believed LTTE would protect them, they would have sought refuge in Wanni. Ironically, it is the LTTE that is struggling to keep tamils from leaving their area to government controlled areas.

LTTE media might suggest otherwise, but Tamils in general know that without India's involvement, they are politically at the mercy of Sinhalese.

Tamils view LTTE as their defenders, not as their rulers. They believe that only LTTE can protect them from the SL military onslaught. But they don't envision LTTE as their rulers. They have enough experience to know how LTTE, as rulers, will deny their basic rights.

 India owes it to the tamils for the unfinished business of its failed mission. What is the other best way to win the broken hearts and minds of tamil people?

        In the era of political decisions being made on national interests than 'doing the right thing', it is also in the interests of India to have a stable Sri Lanka. India has national as well as economical interests in Sri Lanka at stake. Its interests range from Oil storage to exploration, from business ventures to Sedhu Samudhram and it has much more to gain in peaceful and stable Sri Lanka. Its involvement will thwart the others' attempts to use Sri Lanka to disturb the regional stability and keep extremist elements in Tamilnadu in check.

The role India can play

 While Tamils want peace with dignity, Sinhalese want peace with guarantees against secession. Political solution to Sri Lankan ethnic question is not an easy task, given the number of parties involved and their varying political interests. Besides satisfying them, to implement any solution, the Constitution has to be amended, which in turn, needs two third majority. With the divided electorate and Proportional Representation, having a majority government is a thing of past. Governments that are blackmailed by minority parties don't have the guts to do the right thing, fearing collapse.

        Above all, the main parties, depending their time in power, change stances not to give credit to the other for solving the crisis and, competing with extremists to deny them any political mileage, portray any kind of solution as a sellout.

        Lately, there is a silver lining giving some hope. Both main parties, to some extent, tired of being blackmailed by extremists, came to an understanding to come up with a solution. It is just a start. Given the volatility of Sri Lankan politics, even the name of the package, such as federal or indian model, might break any deal and, worse, make the country erupt in flames.

        Without showing any overt involvement, India can play its role behind the scenes well. Even though international pressure is on Sri Lankan government, India alone has the capability to get this political matchmaking work as it can influence both main political parties while keeping LTTE in check. India can pressure them on tabling an offer LTTE 'can't refuse' and, above all, make LTTE known 'the price it would pay for the life it chooses'. When it comes to the constitutional amendments, support by those small tamil and muslim parties is there for India's asking.

          It is not easy to keep this marriage of convenience work. This time around, it doesn't need to be a shotgun wedding. If the fate has it to make this holy matrimony sanctified in the altars of South Block, India can do it by facilitating some pilgrimages.

But calling them for consultations to the High Commission might trigger an outbreak of foot-in-the-mouth disease.

George R.Ckrhushchev